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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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