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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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