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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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