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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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