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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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