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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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