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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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