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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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