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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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