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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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