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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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