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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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