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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
COAL FINANCING COSTS HAVE SURGED IN PAST 10 YEARS - UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD - THE GUARDIAN
Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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