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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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