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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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