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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
END TO COAL POWER BROUGHT FORWARD TO OCTOBER 2024
Press Release: The deadline to phase out coal from Great Britain's energy system has been brought forward by a whole year, highlighting the UK& ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY BUILD 600 NEW UNPROFITABLE COAL PLANTS? - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Governments in Asia are planning 600 new coal plants that could lose investors $150 billion and derail efforts to limit temperature rise in line wi ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
FIVE ASIAN COUNTRIES ACCOUNT FOR 80% OF NEW COAL POWER INVESTMENT - THE GUARDIAN
Five Asian countries are jeopardising global climate ambitions by investing in 80% of the world’s planned new coal plants, according to a rep ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR RECORDED AN IMPROVED REVENUE IN Q1 2021; REVENUE INCREASED BY 49% QOQ TO US$160 MILLION ON THE BACK OF COAL PRICE RECOVERY
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (“DOID”) released its consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owned ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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