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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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