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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 30 June 21
BUMA SIGNED MINING AGREEMENT WITH ADARO
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into an agreement for the p ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The strong freight performance since the beginning of year has continued for the dry bulk market with earnings being at the highest level in over a ...
Monday, 28 June 21
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA THREATENS TO REVOKE 2,350 MINING BUSINESS PERMITS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the revocation of mining business permits was in accordance with President Jokowi's inst ...
Sunday, 27 June 21
INDONESIA'S STATE-OWNED UTILITY PLN'S 2060 NET ZERO AMBITION NOT WITHOUT FLAWS AND GAPS - IEEFA
Indonesia on the right emissions reduction pathway but same old coal stories persist
Recent announcements by Indonesia’s state-owned uti ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
COAL PRICES HIT DECADE HIGH DESPITE EFFORTS TO WEAN THE WORLD OFF CARBON - WSJ
Rebounding electricity usage and scanty rainfall in China have added fuel to the rally
Coal prices have climbed to their highest lev ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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