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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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