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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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