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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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