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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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