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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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