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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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