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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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