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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 October 20
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Friday, 23 October 20
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KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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