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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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