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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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