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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
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