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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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