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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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