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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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