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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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