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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 24 September 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA FIXING AROUND US$13,000 - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Over the last week the iron ore segment from Brazil to China has picked up, and we see freight rates up USD 2 (12%) week on week Fearnleys ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 1.92 MILLION TONS OF 4,300-4,700 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 640,000 MT 4,300-4,700 kcal/kg NCV coal per year.
...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
VIETNAM'S NEW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN MUST OPTIMIZE RENEWABLES AND AVOID FOSSIL FUEL LOCK-IN: IEEFA
EVN’s financial constraints leaves the utility with little room for error
Implementing Vietnam’s soon-to-be-launched next Power De ...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Undoubtedly, this year (ongoing) will never be forgotten because in a matter of months it has managed to severely affect and shape our day to day p ...
Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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