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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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