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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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