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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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