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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Friday, 19 June 20
INDIA'S COAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN 2019 SLOWEST SINCE 2001: BP STATS REVIEW - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Growth in global energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Th ...
Friday, 19 June 20
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 1,050,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korera Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1,050k MT Min.5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for t ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: GOVT'S PLAN TO CUT COAL IMPORT GOES FOR A TOSS AS FY20 BREAKS LOGISTICS CHAIN; LOCAL OUTPUT STAGNANT - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Weak logistics support and disrupted supply chain towards the end of the last financial year 2019-20 hit the government’s plan to cut coal im ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS TO OPERATE BELOW 53% CAPACITY IN FY21 AS POWER DEMAND DIPS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power stations across the country is projected to dip below 53 per cent in this fiscal. Muted power demand f ...
Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the deve ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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