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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Monday, 06 July 20
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN FREE FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
Capesize
The Capesize market continues to go from strength to strength, as rates reach highs not seen since September last year. The rally is p ...
Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
The prospects of commercial coal mining in India may be dimmer than initially expected because of the expected shift in India’s energy mix fr ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
It i ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Colombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
Export ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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