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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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