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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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