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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
Peabody Energy, the world’s largest priva ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITING BIDS FOR MIN 3,600-MAX 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) inviting bids for 80,000 Tons (MT) Min 3,600~Max 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal f ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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