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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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