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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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