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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and de ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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