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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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