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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
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Friday, 23 February 24
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Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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