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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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