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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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