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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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Showing 41 to 45 news of total 6871 |
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- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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