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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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