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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 19 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK SOAR 7.69% IN MARCH....!!!
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised up Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 67.76 per MT in March ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
AVERAGE RATE FOR CAPES MOVED TO BELOW $ 4K/DAY LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The even heavier losses noted in the Capesize segment last week, denied the Dry Bulk market a third weekly positive, while the smalle ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
PARKING THE CAPES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It is no secret that recent times have been anything but kind towards shipping, and no sector has suffered more lately than the dry bulk one. While ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
CHINA-OWNED SHIPS: A RAPID RISE TO BECOME ONE OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST FLEETS - RICHARD SCOTT
Ships operated by owners based in China have become increasingly prominent on the world’s sea routes. China-owned container ships, bulk carri ...
Wednesday, 18 March 15
Q2 INDONESIAN COAL SWAP DROP 1.45% M-O-M; GAIN 0.63% W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and gained week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 0.70 (1.45%) ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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