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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 17 March 15
GAS TO CHALLENGE COAL IN THE ASIAN POWER GENERATION MIX - WOOD MACKENZIE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Wood Mackenzie says that coal is facing increasing competition from gas in the power sector. Coal has dominated as the fu ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
RIO TINTO PAID US$ 7.1 BILLION IN TAXES IN 2014
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has published its latest Taxes paid report, detailing the US$7.1 billion in taxes paid by the company around the world in 2 ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
NEARLY 17% OF US COAL PRODUCTION UNECONOMIC AT CURRENT MARKET PRICING - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: Close to 17% of forecast 2015 US coal production is at risk of idling or closure, totalling 162 million short tons (Mst), as these mi ...
Tuesday, 17 March 15
Q3' SA COAL SWAP CLOSED $57.30 PMT W/E 13 MARCH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and gained week on week.
The Q2 swap has fe ...
Monday, 16 March 15
MAKING THE WORLD GO ROUND - SEABORNE TRADE! - CLARKSONS
Money, or even love if you prefer, are claimed to make the world go round. For the shipping world, however, it’s trade that sets things spinn ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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